STRAIGHT TALK by Hafeez Khan
What is happening in Pakistan reminds of a documentary I saw about Mongols. They were master horsemen withamazing skills. One visual that comes to mind is a single rider riding two horses, one leg on each one, masterfullycontrolling both. He ran a risk; a minor misstep would have fatal consequences. We in Pakistan are also attempting to replay this act. We are relying on USA for dollars for economic survival and China for defense and physical survival. These two global powers are diametrically opposed and intense competitors on the world stage. How long will this horseshow last?
Pakistan has been living on the edge for decades. Ever since the economy was distroyed by Bhutto’s fantasy dance with socialism, we have been doddering along,surviving on one dole-out after another. It started with Afghan war after USSR’s takeover. We sided with the West and paved the way for the breakup of a world power. Dollar inflow was aplenty, filling our national exchequer and creating immense wealth for those in power. It also brought Kalashnikov culture and militancy into our society.
There was a repeat performance after 9/11 when Pakistan joined the war on terror as an ally of the West. This timethe consequences were worse. The resistance alliance in Afghanistan determined that “an enemy’s friend is an enemy too”. This led to a massive wave of terror in the entire country leaving tens of thousands of civilian and security forces dead and wounded. We ended up being on the receiving end of a Punjabi saying “ganday we khade tey littar we” translates “we ended up suffering from all sides.” The scrouge of distrust continues to hound us even today.
I have given this background to re-enforce the fact the we remain totally obstinate and refuse to learn any lessons from history. Trying to straddle two horses, keeping in mind our internal conflicts and dangers from outside, is very dangerous. Being a pawn in the power game between two super powers can cause humungous collateral damage to Pakistan. We need to seriously evaluate the threats from within the country and outside.
There is a full-fledged insurgency going on in Baluchistan. The only answer from those in power is a military response. This deep-rooted problem requires a master strategy for reconciliation and concerted efforts to bring the Baluchis into mainstream. Efforts to suppress have failed over seven decades; why will it work now? Sharing the pie is always better than trying to gobble up everything. Reconciliation with Dr Mahrang Baluch, who has captured the imagination of the Baluchi youth, would be a step in the right direction. Yet the powerful have decided to call her a terrorist.
On the economic front, the new budget has nothing for the impoverished masses. Any benefits or relief revolves around the armed forces or the elite. Pakistan has an agrarian base. This entire sector has shown dismal performance. Production is down in all major crops. The shortfall in wheat and cotton crops will lead to imports, another massive drain on the already scarce foreign exchange. IMF, with the tacit blessing of USA, has given us enough to keep us ticking over. One can only last so long on a ventilator.
Economy is closely intertwined with politics. Till we have political stability and a robust justice system, economic growth is not possible. Investors always shy away from an unstable environment. How can this stalemate improve? For the last three years every ounce of those in power is entirely focused on demolishing PTI and to subdue Imran Khan. In order to achieve this objective a “kleptocratic” regime, rule by thieves, has been imposed. In order to support their continuity, the judiciary has been mutilated, media muffled and human rights destroyed. IK is suffering brutal and inhuman treatment in an oven-like detention cell. He has not moved an inch from his demand for rule of law and re-instatement of human rights.
This internal turmoil and the re-igniting of confrontation with India has again brought us to the edge of a precipice. We got an upper hand in the four-day skirmish. Do we have the wherewithal for a prolonged conflict? PM Modi is a wounded animal who can strike back any time, just to stroke his ego. There is an urgent need to bring down temperature domestically to unite the nation to face the challenges at home and dangers from abroad.
If you visualize our present situation, you can liken it to two eighteen wheelers confronting each other on a narrow road, neither willing to back down. This stalemate will lead to further disasters. There is need from all sides to rethink their strategies and make a serious effort to be creative to end this impasse for the sake of the country. It is interesting that a politician expected to be a realist, is practicing idealism and the General who is supposed to be a straight shooter has turned out to be a master of realpolitik.
What are the options available? Wisdom dictates when two sides lock their horns, it requires a third party to assist their disengagement. Historically two players have made it possible; USA and Saudi Arabia, with US in lead. It appears there is standoff between US politicians and parts of their Establishment. Till that is resolved there is little chance of their involvement. Leaving the only option of ending this standoff through a popular uprising.
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