STRAIGHT TALK by Hafeez Khan
Human history is replete with conflicts based on ethnicity, religion and expansionism. Underlying most wars there is an element of greed, control, domination and above all economic gain. Since recorded, history battles were fought on land; moved to the seas and then onto air space. The latest advent is deployment of technology. The determining principal remains unchanged. “Jis ke lathey uske bhans” translates “whoever wields the biggest stick gets the milking cow.”
We are seeing it unfold in Ukraine these days with Russia headed to expand westwards. In my previous article I had written “Is the war in Europe imminent?” and stated “the consequences are scary.” The conflict has started. The justifications offered make an interesting read. Russia needs a buffer against any eastwards expansion of NATO. Its forces have launched attacks all across Ukraine. Their military might is formidable. Ukraine does not stand a chance in a conventional war. It has outraged the international community.
Irrespective of justifications offered, the underlying factor is the flow of energy from Russia to Europe – thus I term it the “Energy War”. In the last five hundred years, wars have been fought over commodities. In the 17th century we had “Spice Wars” and in the 19th century the “Opium Wars.” The Spice Wars were fought between Portuguese and Dutch, at times joined by the British. It was triggered by European nations wanting to control the seaways. They battled each other to take over lucrative commodities sources and dominate the trade routes. It led to colonization of vast territories which they ruled for centuries. Spice was a commodity of choice at that time, hence known as Spice Wars.
Opium Wars were fought on Chinese mainland to subjugate them so the British and French could benefit from the lucrative opium trade from the sub-continent. In late 19th century, oil was discovered in North America. It became a dominant part of the civilization used as fuel for automotives. Its usage exploded into all segments and dependence on oil became an integral part of human life. Large scale burning of fossil fuels has negatively impacted our planet leading to global warming and climate change.
Urgency has set in to replace oil by sustainable and renewable energy sources. It is an arduous path requiring major investments. In the meantime fossil fuels continue to dominate. Russia is the 2nd largest producer of gas and oil after USA. It supplies 60% of European fuel needs. Eastern European dependence is around 75%. Rise in price of these commodities has Russia flush with cash. They have rebuilt their reserves that were depleted after the fall of Soviet Union. President Putin is now far more assertive in trying to resurrect Russia’s influence similar to that of defunct Soviet Empire.
In 2014 Russia invaded Crimea and installed a subservient regime. Western alliance responded with lukewarm sanctions that partially dented the Russian economy. They were not enough to deter them from their present onslaught on Ukraine. Ukraine after its independence in 1991 missed the opportunity to join NATO to benefit from their joint defense charter. It is only a matter of time before Russian forces overwhelm Ukraine. They are following the blueprint of 2014 Crimean takeover. After dismantling the present structure, they will eliminate the present Ukrainian leadership and replace it with a puppet regime that is a proxy for Russia.
Without military intervention, the only choice the West has is to put sanctions on Russia that will eventually cripple their economy, leading to a roll back of the invasion. It is likely that President Volodymr Zelenskyy and his team shall relocate outside Ukraine. It will now depend on the Ukrainian citizens to fight and resist the new regime. Do they have the spine like the Afghans to carry out a sustained resistance that will bleed the Russians enough to consider a pull back?
President Biden is leading the outraged Western Alliances sanctions in their efforts to discourage President Putin through shutting down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. They have included oligarchs close to President Putin, some Russian banks, and restricted Russia’s ability to raise capital for its sovereign debt. So far they have proved insufficient to dissuade Russia. It is likely to be a long protracted effort.
There are dissentions within USA. Former President Trump in a recent interview praised President Putin as a genius and brilliant person! Having someone who got over 70 million votes in 2020 openly siding with Putin is bound to impact US’s resolve to effectively resist the invasion of Ukraine.
PM IK’s visit to Russia in the midst of this conflict may come across as bad timing. A historic visit after 23 years by a Pakistani leader could lead to misunderstanding. He has an ambitious agenda to further ties with Russia in energy, defense, trade, and economic fields and drum up support for Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis. One hopes that progress can be achieved despite President Putin’s pre-occupation with Ukraine.
Pakistan’s shortsighted opposition seeking immediate selfish gains are unable to view the larger picture. They will not miss any opportunity to score points even if it damages the country. Their fixation is to derail a democratically elected Government before it completes its term. It will harm our national interests. It takes me back to my oft repeated position. The present system in Pakistan is broken. It needs a complete overhaul where the nation’s future matters more than personal agendas that need to be decapitated.
