STRAIGHT TALK by Hafeez Khan
There is a carnival in USA every four years. It’s called the election year. An incoming President after taking oath has three years to implement his agenda. In the fourth year of his term, election activities for the next term begin. They keep gaining momentum and by mid-year the nation is focused on November 5th, the election date. Normally by mid-November the results are settled and the transition or continuation for next term is a tame affair. The victorious President takes oath in late January.
All this changed when President Trump came on the scene. He refused to accept the results in 2020. There were near sixty court challenges by Trump’s team in various courts, alleging irregularities. All these got turned down one by one; yet it did not deter President Trump and his team from continuing to deny results. His attempts to thwart the announcement of results reached a crescendo on 6th January. On that day a horde of his supporters attacked the Capitol Hill to prevent the certification of the results by the Congress. The attempt failed and President Biden took oath on January 20th 2021.
This resulted in the start of a four-year offensive by Donald Trump and his supporters as election deniers. Despite the counter offensive by Justice Department, President Trump stuck to his guns and maintained support of his true believers. It culminated in Trump becoming the Republican nominee for 2024. I have strong views on this entire process which I will hold back to give an unbiased assessment of the present contest. The pollsters are having a field day predicting the outcome of these elections; a majority of the polls predict an extremely close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and President Trump.
As a background, US electorate falls into three categories; blue states that are traditionally democratic, red states that are traditionally Republican and purple states, also known as swing states, that can turn results either way. Based on electoral laws enacted in 1787, the results are not based on who gets more popular votes across the country. It is determined by who gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes out of 538 electors. Electoral votes are based on number of Senators and congress seats in each state as per latest US census. Challengers of this system claim it gives disproportionate weight to smaller states. 93 electoral votes of swing states, 3 in the “sun belt” and 4 in the “rust belt” will determine the winner.
Amongst the Republicans, Trump was always the lead contender. His challengers withered away early in the race. However, the Democrats journey was convoluted. President Biden tried to defy nature. Despite his age and dwindling capacity, he sought to lead the nation. That got horribly exposed in the 1st debate between him and Trump. It sent the party into panic mode. It was resolved through Harris nomination leaving her a limited window to establish her credentials. She was well received at the democratic convention, and able to gain momentum.
Every election both parties submit state-wise elector’s slates. After the vote count, the winner in 48 states and Washington DC follow “winner take all” principle except Maine and Nebraska, who follow proportional method. This election’s polls show Trump and Harris tied at 47 or 48 percent support. Both contenders are fighting tooth and nail to win over 4 to 6 percent of remaining voters.
Generally, the contest revolves around each contestant’spolitical and economic agenda and their ability to sell it to the electorate. In 2024 new factors have been injected into the race. They include gender, religious beliefs, race, candidate’s age, women’s rights, immigration and the level of education of the voter.
When you compare the two nominees’ political and economic agenda, Harris has established a clear edge. She has come out with a program with defined goals. President Trump on the other hand is relying on nostalgiaof his 1st term without enunciating a clear plan.
Amongst the social agenda items enunciated above, it appears Trump has an upper hand. Harris is competing to become 1st woman president having bi-racial descent versus macho Trump appealing to chauvinism of male voters, especially non-college educated. Harris is much younger and Trump’s age is being challenged. Roe vs Wade is making female voters’ gel and vote overwhelmingly for Harris. Immigration is a massive hammer in Trump’s hand who intends to squeeze the last drop of blood on this issue. Social issues are muddying the waters for anyone to emerge as a front runner.
For majority of Pakistanis, President Biden’s backing of army and corrupt politicians has been a clear disappointment. America’s role in removing IK and shoring up this fascist regime has left deep imprints. His total disability to end Gaza atrocities and feeble resistance of Netanyahu’s brutality has bled Muslim support from Harris. In such a closely contested elections, ethnic and religious minorities could impact the final outcome.
Whoever finally emerges will define the US role in the future. The century old conflict between “America First” and retaining global leadership will be decided on November 5th. Another issue that would be resolved is whether the existing democratic dispensation of the society will continue or a centralized control of governance, bordering on autocracy will emerge. Hence my assertion that it is tight contest, vitriolic in nature, with huge implications. My gut feeling is that motivation of voters, their early voting patterns and turnout on election may give us a surprise.
